The following is an update to the first quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the first quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual first quarter 2025 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on May 2, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 905 | 910 - 950 | Impacted by unplanned maintenance, including in Australia. |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.1 | 6.4 - 6.8 | Reflects weather impact (cyclones) and unplanned maintenance in Australia. |
| Underlying opex | 1.0 | 0.9 - 1.1 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.6 | 0.7 - 1.0 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q4'24, despite a higher (non-cash) impact from expiring hedge contracts compared to the previous quarter. | |||
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,859 | 1,790 - 1,890 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.8 | 1.9 - 2.5 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.6 | 2.4 - 3.2 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q1'25 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q1'25 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.1 billion.
The Q1'25 outlook reflects the completion of the SPDC divestment in March 2025. | |||
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,795 | 2,500 - 2,900 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.5 | 2.3 - 2.7 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.5 - 0.7 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.3 | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Combined Mobility & Lubricants results expected to be in line with Q4'24. Overall Marketing results are expected to be impacted by a lower contribution from Sectors & Decarbonisation. | |||
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Indicative refining margin | $5.5/bbl | $6.2/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $138/tonne | $126/tonne | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q4'24. |
| Refinery utilisation | 76% | 83% - 87% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 75% | 79% - 83% | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 | 1.8 - 2.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 | 0.8 - 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | (0.2) | (0.2) - 0.3 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation in Q1'25 is expected to be significantly higher than Q4'24, in line with Q2'24 and Q3'24 contributions. | |||
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.3) | (0.3) - 0.3 |
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.4) | (0.6) - (0.4) |
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Outlook | Comment |
| CFFO: | |||
| Tax paid | 2.9 | 2.5 - 3.3 | |
| Derivative movements | 0.3 | (2) - 2 | |
| Working capital | 2.4 | (5) - 0 | Includes ~$0.5 billion of deferred German Mineral Oil Taxes settlements. |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | |||
| The Q1'25 net debt movement will reflect a ~$1.5 billion increase related to loan facilities provided at completion of the sale of SPDC in Nigeria as well as lease additions associated with the Pavilion acquisition. | |||
The 'Quarterly Databook' contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on April 23, 2025.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
| Chemicals & Products | Q4'24 | Q1'25 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $5.5/bbl | $6.2/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $138/tonne | $126/tonne |
| Q4'24 Adjusted | Q1'25 QPR Outlook | Q1'25 Updated Outlook | |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 905 | 930 - 990 | 910 - 950 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.1 | 6.6 - 7.2 | 6.4 - 6.8 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,859 | 1,750 - 1,950 | 1,790 - 1,890 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,795 | 2,500 - 3,000 | 2,500 - 2,900 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 76% | 80% - 88% | 83% - 87% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 75% | 78% - 86% | 79% - 83% |
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 4th Quarter 2024 and full year unaudited results (Link).
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q4'24 Adjusted | Q1'25 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.8 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.2 | ||
| Research and development | 0.3 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.4 | 9.4 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.3 | ||
| Underlying Opex | 9.1 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 - 1.1 |
| Upstream | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
| Marketing | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 - 2.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 - 2.2 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q4'24 Adjusted | Q1'25 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 7.5 | 7.5 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 1.7 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.8 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| Upstream | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 - 2.5 |
| Marketing | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 - 0.7 |
| Chemicals and Products | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 - 1.0 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q4'24 Adjusted | Q1'25 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.2) | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 3.4 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 - 1.0 |
| Upstream | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 - 3.2 |
| Marketing | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
| Chemicals and Products | (0.4) | (0.2) | (0.2) - 0.3 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | 0.1 |
The "Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell's financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell's financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 4th Quarter 2024 and full year unaudited results (Link).
| $ billions | Q4'24 | Q4'24 Adjusted | Q1'25 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | - | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (2.8) | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 3.7 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (1.2) | (0.3) | (0.3) - 0.3 |
| Corporate | (0.3) | (0.4) | (0.6) - (0.4) |
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Cautionary Note
The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement "Shell”, "Shell Group” and "Group” are sometimes used for convenience to reference Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we”, "us” and "our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ''Subsidiaries'', "Shell subsidiaries” and "Shell companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The terms "joint venture”, "joint operations”, "joint arrangements”, and "associates” may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownership interest with one or more parties. The term "Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
The numbers presented in this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures due to rounding.
Forward-Looking statements
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