Railroad Expects to Deliver 10%-15% EPS Growth in 2025
MONTREAL, Jan. 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CN (TSX: CNR) (NYSE: CNI) today reported its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2024.
"Thanks to our team and the strength of our operating model, we were able to quickly recover from several shocks across the supply chain in 2024. We have good momentum as 2025 begins, and we are well positioned to drive growth with our customers and operating leverage across our system.”
- Tracy Robinson, President and Chief Executive Officer, CN
Financial results highlights
Fourth-quarter 2024 compared to fourth-quarter 2023
- Revenue ton miles (RTMs) of 59,305 (millions), a decrease of 3%.
- Revenues of C$4,358 million, a decrease of C$113 million, or 3%.
- Operating income of C$1,628 million, a decrease of C$190 million, or 10%.
- Operating ratio, defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenues, of 62.6%, an increase of 3.3-points.
- Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of C$1.82, a decrease of 45%, or a decrease of 10% on an adjusted basis. (1)
- RTMs of 235,538 (millions), an increase of 1%.
- Revenues of C$17,046 million, an increase of C$218 million, or 1%.
- Operating income of C$6,247 million, a decrease of C$350 million, or 5%.
- Operating ratio of 63.4%, an increase of 2.6 points, and adjusted operating ratio of 62.9%, an increase of 2.1 points. (1)
- Diluted EPS of C$7.01, a decrease of 18% and adjusted diluted EPS of C$7.10, a decrease of 2%. (1)
- Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.9%, a decrease of 3.9 points and adjusted ROIC of 13.1%, a decrease of 1.4-points. (1)
In 2025, CN expects to deliver 10%-15% adjusted diluted EPS growth and plans to invest approximately C$3.4 billion in its capital program, net of amounts reimbursed by customers.
Over the 2024-2026 period, CN continues to target compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS growth in the high single-digit range.
Shareholder returns
The Company's Board of Directors approved a 5% increase to CN's 2025 quarterly cash dividend, effective for the first quarter of 2025. This is the 29th consecutive year of dividend increases, demonstrating our confidence in the long-term financial health of the Company. In addition, the Company's Board of Directors also approved a new Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) that permits CN to purchase, for cancellation, over a 12-month period up to 20 million common shares, starting on February 4, 2025, and ending no later than February 3, 2026. CN continues to manage to its adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA target of 2.5x. (1)(2)
CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS
CN's senior officers will review the results and the railway's outlook in a conference call starting at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on January 30. Tracy Robinson, CN President and Chief Executive Officer, will lead the call. Parties wishing to participate via telephone may dial 1-800-715-9871 (Canada/U.S.), or 1-647-932-3411 (International), using 1405609 as the passcode. Participants are advised to dial in 10 minutes prior to the call.
(1) Non-GAAP Measures
CN reports its financial results in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). CN also uses non-GAAP measures in this news release that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP. These non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. For further details of these non-GAAP measures, including a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, refer to the attached supplementary schedule, Non-GAAP Measures.
CN's full-year and long-term adjusted diluted EPS outlook and adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA target(2) exclude certain adjustments, which are expected to be comparable to adjustments made in prior years. However, management cannot individually quantify on a forward-looking basis the impact of these adjustments on its adjusted diluted EPS and adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA because these items, which could be significant, are difficult to predict and may be highly variable. As a result, CN does not provide a corresponding GAAP measure for, or reconciliation to, its adjusted diluted EPS outlook or its adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA target.
(2) Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements included in this news release constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and under Canadian securities laws, including statements based on management's assessment and assumptions and publicly available information with respect to CN. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. CN cautions that its assumptions may not materialize and that current economic conditions render such assumptions, although reasonable at the time they were made, subject to greater uncertainty. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology such as "believes", "expects", "anticipates", "assumes", "outlook", "plans", "targets" or other similar words.
2025 key assumptions
CN has made a number of economic and market assumptions in preparing its 2025 outlook. The Company assumes North American industrial production growth of approximately 1% in 2025. For the 2024/2025 crop year, the grain crop in Canada was in line with its five-year average and the U.S. grain crop was above its five-year average. The Company assumes that the 2025/2026 grain crops in Canada and the U.S. will be in line with their respective five-year averages. CN assumes RTM growth will be in the low to mid single-digit range. CN also assumes that in 2025, the value of the Canadian dollar in U.S. currency will be approximately $0.70, and assumes that in 2025 the average price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) will be in the range of US$70 - US$80 per barrel.
2024-2026 key assumptions
CN has made a number of economic and market assumptions in preparing its three-year financial perspective. CN assumes that the North American industrial production will increase by approximately 1% CAGR over the 2024 to 2026 period. CN assumes continued pricing above rail inflation. CN assumes that the value of the Canadian dollar in U.S. currency will be approximately $0.70 and that the average price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) will be in the range of US$70 - US$80 per barrel during this period.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results, performance or achievements of CN to be materially different from the outlook or any future results, performance or achievements implied by such statements. Accordingly, readers are advised not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Important risk factors that could affect the forward-looking statements in this news release include, but are not limited to, general economic and business conditions, including factors impacting global supply chains such as pandemics and geopolitical conflicts and tensions; industry competition; inflation, currency and interest rate fluctuations; changes in fuel prices; legislative and/or regulatory developments; compliance with environmental laws and regulations; actions by regulators; increases in maintenance and operating costs; security threats; reliance on technology and related cybersecurity risk; trade restrictions, trade barriers, or the imposition of tariffs or other changes to international trade arrangements; transportation of hazardous materials; various events which could disrupt operations, including illegal blockades of rail networks, and natural events such as severe weather, droughts, fires, floods and earthquakes; climate change; labor negotiations and disruptions; environmental claims; uncertainties of investigations, proceedings and other types of claims and litigation; risks and liabilities arising from derailments; timing and completion of capital programs; the availability of and cost competitiveness of renewable fuels and the development of new locomotive propulsion technology; reputational risks; supplier concentration; pension funding requirements and volatility; and other risks detailed from time to time in reports filed by CN with securities regulators in Canada and the United States. Reference should also be made to Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) in CN's annual and interim reports, Annual Information Form and Form 40-F, filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators and available on CN's website, for a description of major risk factors relating to CN.
The achievement of CN's climate goals is subject to several risks and uncertainties, including those disclosed in the MD&A. While the Company currently believes its goals are reasonably achievable, there can be no certainty that the Company will achieve any or all of these goals within the stated timeframe, or that achieving any of these goals will meet all of the expectations of its stakeholders or applicable legal requirements.
Forward-looking statements reflect information as of the date on which they are made. CN assumes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events, changes in circumstances, or changes in beliefs, unless required by applicable securities laws. In the event CN does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be made that CN will make additional updates with respect to that statement, related matters, or any other forward-looking statement. Information contained on, or accessible through, our website is not incorporated by reference into this news release.
This earnings news release is available on the Company's website at www.cn.ca/financial-results and on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca as well as on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's website at www.sec.gov through EDGAR.
About CN
CN powers the economy by safely transporting more than 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods throughout North America every year for its customers. With its nearly 20,000-mile rail network and related transportation services, CN connects Canada's Eastern and Western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico, contributing to sustainable trade and the prosperity of the communities in which it operates since 1919.
Contacts: | |
Media | Investment Community |
Ashley Michnowski | Stacy Alderson |
Senior Manager | Assistant Vice-President |
Media Relations | Investor Relations |
(438) 596-4329 | (514) 399-0052 |
[email protected] | [email protected] |
SELECTED RAILROAD STATISTICS - UNAUDITED
Three months ended December 31 | Year ended December 31 | |||
2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Financial measures | ||||
Key financial performance indicators (1) | ||||
Total revenues ($ millions) | 4,358 | 4,471 | 17,046 | 16,828 |
Freight revenues ($ millions) | 4,183 | 4,303 | 16,395 | 16,236 |
Operating income ($ millions) | 1,628 | 1,818 | 6,247 | 6,597 |
Adjusted operating income ($ millions) (2)(3) | 1,628 | 1,818 | 6,325 | 6,597 |
Net income ($ millions) | 1,146 | 2,130 | 4,448 | 5,625 |
Adjusted net income ($ millions) (2)(3) | 1,146 | 1,305 | 4,506 | 4,800 |
Diluted earnings per share ($) | 1.82 | 3.29 | 7.01 | 8.53 |
Adjusted diluted earnings per share ($) (2)(3) | 1.82 | 2.02 | 7.10 | 7.28 |
Free cash flow ($ millions) (2)(4) | 1,032 | 1,613 | 3,092 | 3,887 |
Gross property additions ($ millions) | 944 | 947 | 3,549 | 3,217 |
Share repurchases ($ millions) | 153 | 1,113 | 2,651 | 4,551 |
Dividends per share ($) | 0.8450 | 0.7900 | 3.3800 | 3.1600 |
Financial ratio | ||||
Operating ratio (%) (5) | 62.6 | 59.3 | 63.4 | 60.8 |
Adjusted operating ratio (%) (2)(3) | 62.6 | 59.3 | 62.9 | 60.8 |
Operational measures (6) | ||||
Statistical operating data | ||||
Gross ton miles (GTMs) (millions) | 113,660 | 118,687 | 457,694 | 452,043 |
Revenue ton miles (RTMs) (millions) | 59,305 | 61,136 | 235,538 | 232,614 |
Carloads (thousands) | 1,324 | 1,388 | 5,390 | 5,436 |
Route miles (includes Canada and the U.S., end of year) | 18,800 | 18,800 | 18,800 | 18,800 |
Employees (end of period) | 24,671 | 24,987 | 24,671 | 24,987 |
Employees (average for the period) | 24,862 | 25,102 | 25,304 | 24,920 |
Key operating measures | ||||
Freight revenue per RTM (cents) | 7.05 | 7.04 | 6.96 | 6.98 |
Freight revenue per carload ($) | 3,159 | 3,100 | 3,042 | 2,987 |
GTMs per average number of employees (thousands) | 4,572 | 4,728 | 18,088 | 18,140 |
Operating expenses per GTM (cents) | 2.40 | 2.24 | 2.36 | 2.26 |
Labor and fringe benefits expense per GTM (cents) | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
Diesel fuel consumed (US gallons in millions) | 100.1 | 103.7 | 401.1 | 395.2 |
Average fuel price ($ per US gallon) | 4.15 | 4.76 | 4.41 | 4.62 |
Fuel efficiency (US gallons of locomotive fuel consumed per 1,000 GTMs) | 0.881 | 0.874 | 0.876 | 0.874 |
Train weight (tons) | 9,034 | 9,299 | 9,087 | 9,186 |
Train length (feet) | 7,670 | 7,951 | 7,831 | 7,891 |
Car velocity (car miles per day) | 210 | 215 | 209 | 213 |
Through dwell (entire railroad, hours) | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
Through network train speed (miles per hour) | 19.2 | 19.6 | 18.9 | 19.8 |
Locomotive utilization (trailing GTMs per total horsepower) | 186 | 193 | 186 | 191 |
Safety indicators (7) | ||||
Injury frequency rate (per 200,000 person hours) | 1.12 | 0.83 | 1.06 | 0.98 |
Accident rate (per million train miles) | 1.75 | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.80 |
(1) | Amounts expressed in Canadian dollars and prepared in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), unless otherwise noted. | |
(2) | These non-GAAP measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. | |
(3) | See the supplementary schedule entitled Non-GAAP Measures - Adjusted performance measures for an explanation of these non-GAAP measures. | |
(4) | See the supplementary schedule entitled Non-GAAP Measures - Free cash flow for an explanation of this non-GAAP measure. | |
(5) | Operating ratio is defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenues. | |
(6) | Statistical operating data, key operating measures and safety indicators are unaudited and based on estimated data available at such time and are subject to change as more complete information becomes available. Definitions of gross ton miles, revenue ton miles, freight revenue per RTM, fuel efficiency, train weight, train length, car velocity, through dwell and through network train speed are included within the Company's Management's Discussion and Analysis. Definitions of all other indicators are provided on CN's website, www.cn.ca/glossary. | |
(7) | Based on Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) reporting criteria. |
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION - UNAUDITED
Three months ended December 31 | Year ended December 31 | ||||||||||||
2024 | 2023 | % Change Fav (Unfav) | % Change at constant currency (1) Fav (Unfav) | 2024 | 2023 | % Change Fav (Unfav) | % Change at constant currency (1) Fav (Unfav) | ||||||
Revenues ($ millions) (2) | |||||||||||||
Petroleum and chemicals | 868 | 861 | 1 | % | (1 | %) | 3,414 | 3,195 | 7 | % | 6 | % | |
Metals and minerals | 488 | 507 | (4 | %) | (6 | %) | 2,048 | 2,048 | - | % | (1 | %) | |
Forest products | 469 | 486 | (3 | %) | (5 | %) | 1,931 | 1,943 | (1 | %) | (2 | %) | |
Coal | 238 | 249 | (4 | %) | (5 | %) | 929 | 1,017 | (9 | %) | (9 | %) | |
Grain and fertilizers | 1,038 | 994 | 4 | % | 3 | % | 3,422 | 3,265 | 5 | % | 4 | % | |
Intermodal | 876 | 948 | (8 | %) | (8 | %) | 3,757 | 3,823 | (2 | %) | (2 | %) | |
Automotive | 206 | 258 | (20 | %) | (21 | %) | 894 | 945 | (5 | %) | (6 | %) | |
Total freight revenues | 4,183 | 4,303 | (3 | %) | (4 | %) | 16,395 | 16,236 | 1 | % | - | % | |
Other revenues | 175 | 168 | 4 | % | 2 | % | 651 | 592 | 10 | % | 9 | % | |
Total revenues | 4,358 | 4,471 | (3 | %) | (4 | %) | 17,046 | 16,828 | 1 | % | 1 | % | |
Revenue ton miles (RTMs) (millions) (3) | |||||||||||||
Petroleum and chemicals | 11,767 | 11,931 | (1 | %) | (1 | %) | 46,530 | 43,846 | 6 | % | 6 | % | |
Metals and minerals | 6,646 | 6,986 | (5 | %) | (5 | %) | 28,829 | 28,444 | 1 | % | 1 | % | |
Forest products | 5,268 | 5,612 | (6 | %) | (6 | %) | 22,111 | 23,141 | (4 | %) | (4 | %) | |
Coal | 5,326 | 5,448 | (2 | %) | (2 | %) | 20,165 | 22,682 | (11 | %) | (11 | %) | |
Grain and fertilizers | 17,904 | 18,341 | (2 | %) | (2 | %) | 64,594 | 63,479 | 2 | % | 2 | % | |
Intermodal | 11,652 | 11,968 | (3 | %) | (3 | %) | 50,190 | 47,886 | 5 | % | 5 | % | |
Automotive | 742 | 850 | (13 | %) | (13 | %) | 3,119 | 3,136 | (1 | %) | (1 | %) | |
Total RTMs | 59,305 | 61,136 | (3 | %) | (3 | ()[\]\\.,;:\s@\"]+)*)|(\".+\"))@((\[[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\])|(([a-zA-Z\-0-9]+\.)+[a-zA-Z]{2,}))$/;return b.test(a)}$(document).ready(function(){if(performance.navigation.type==2){location.reload(true)}$("iframe[data-lazy-src]").each(function(b){$(this).attr("src",$(this).attr("data-lazy-src"))});if($(".owl-article-body-images").length){$(".owl-article-body-images").owlCarousel({items:1,loop:true,center:false,dots:false,autoPlay:true,mouseDrag:false,touchDrag:false,pullDrag:false,nav:true})}var a=$("#display_full_text").val();if(a==0){$.ajax({url:"/ajax/set-article-cookie",type:"POST",data:{cmsArticleId:$("#cms_article_id").val()},dataType:"json",success:function(b){},error:function(b,d,c){}})}$(".read-full-article").on("click",function(d){d.preventDefault();var b=$(this).attr("data-cmsArticleId");var c=$(this).attr("data-productId");var f=$(this).attr("data-href");dataLayer.push({event:"paywall_click",paywall_name:"the_manila_times_premium",paywall_id:"paywall_article_"+b});$.ajax({url:"/ajax/set-article-cookie",type:"POST",data:{cmsArticleId:b,productId:c},dataType:"json",success:function(e){window.location.href=$("#BASE_URL").val()+f},error:function(e,h,g){}})});$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .close-btn").on("click",function(){$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form").fadeOut(1000)})});$(document).on("click",".article-embedded-newsletter-form .newsletter-button",function(){var b=$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .newsletter_email").val();var d=$("#ga_user_id").val();var c=$("#ga_user_yob").val();var a=$("#ga_user_gender").val();var e=$("#ga_user_country").val();if(validateEmail(b)){$.ajax({url:"/ajax/sendynewsletter",type:"POST",data:{email:b},success:function(f){$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").html(f);$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").addClass("show");setTimeout(function(){$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").removeClass("show");$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").html("")},6000);dataLayer.push({event:"newsletter_sub",user_id:d,product_name:"newsletter",gender:a,yob:c,country:e})},error:function(f,h,g){}})}else{$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").html("Please enter a valid email address.");$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").addClass("show");setTimeout(function(){$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").removeClass("show");$(".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message").html("")},6000)}});$(document).on("click",".article-embedded-newsletter-form .nf-message",function(){$(this).removeClass("show");$(this).html("")});
|