COLOR this year opaque for international students and skilled workers, making the task of reading messages from the crystal ball an intricate mess.
Four of the five DestiNations for Filipinos — countries with permanent migration programs — have sent mixed signals for these two migrant sectors.
In May last year, Australia's opposition leader, Peter Dutton, set to reduce the country's target net migration to 160,000, which includes limiting international students to 270,000 for 2025.
In December last year, ABC News Australia reported that Immigration Minister Tony Burke a) published a revised list of eligible occupations for employer-sponsored work visas; b) raised the minimum annual income to $130,000; workers receiving this increased pay can apply for visas no matter their occupation; and c) introduced a new visa pathway for low-paid workers who filled workforce gaps, such as care workers and laborers which to date has stayed in planning limbo.
These announcements seem to entice more — not less — workers to seek temporary and permanent residency.
"We'll have a look at the economic settings when we come to government," he said in a Sky News interview on Sunday, twice refusing to re-commit to the target he set in May of 160,000 a year.
Australia's federal election will be held on or before May 17, 2025, to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. The Liberal Party and the Nationals have formed the longest-running coalition in the Australian parliament. Mr. Dutton leads the Coalition against its main opponent, the Australian Labor Party (ALP).
Changes and revisions also were happening across the globe.
Marc Miller, who heads the Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship Canada (IRCC), announced on Jan. 22 last year that the country would set a 360,000-intake cap on international student permit applications "to stabilize new growth for a period of two years."
Mr. Miller further stated that starting Sept. 1, 2024, international students who begin a study program that is part of a curriculum licensing arrangement will no longer be eligible for a postgraduation work permit from December 2024.
On Nov. 15, 2024, IRCC announced that, with immediate effect, students must apply for a new study permit when transferring to a new institution.
Three months later, IRCC expanded "the list of college programs for which graduates will be eligible to receive a post-graduation work permit (PGWP).
At the same time, IRCC expanded the list of eligible programs to include nearly 40 additional options in two new fields: early childhood education and developmental service workers.
Students currently enrolled and those intending to apply for study permits had to parse through the announcements.
Because of the confusion on when the changes will take effect, IRCC clarified the terms under which those cases would be handled.
"The grace provisions apply to students who had previously been enrolled in Canada and had been accepted to continue their studies via transfer to a new institution for either the winter (starting from Jan. 1, 2025) or spring (starting from May 1, 2025) semesters."
Since the processing time of Canadian study permits takes a minimum of five weeks (from the date of a complete application), Filipino students had to consider what courses to take, the allocation set for institutions in each province, and hope that future announcements will not leave them with uncertain prospects of qualifying for a post-graduation work permit (PGWP) and clear pathways to residency.
Along the skilled migration front, Canada has made several announcements and revisions to its multi-year immigration-level plan.
On Nov. 1, 2023, IRCC announced its aim to welcome 485,000 new permanent residents (PR) in 2024, 500,000 in 2025, and to plateau at 500,000 in 2026.
Barely a year later, the PR admission numbers were changed to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027 as "a whole-of-society approach to be responsive to needs of newcomers and Canadians."
New Zealand
With the steady increase in the volume of partnership residence applications between mid-2023 and August 2024 — specifically "a significant surge in applications in September 2024 before increasing fees on October 1" to NZ$5,360 — Immigration New Zealand (INZ) has allocated more staff to process applications to facilitate processing times for most partnership residence applications to around 7 months."
International students "who studied a postgraduate diploma (PGDip) for 30 weeks and immediately progressed to a master's degree but were not enrolled in the master's for 30 weeks are now eligible to apply for a post-study work visa (PSWV) based on their PGDip enrolment. This will give students more flexibility in their course of study and ensure they can remain eligible to work following their qualification." (https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/media-centre/news-notifications/changes-to-the-post-study-work-visa-pswv)
United Kingdom
From Jan. 1, 2025, as the UK Home Office switches to a digital system, foreign nationals will have to rely on digital records of their status to travel to the UK, prove their right to work, or rent a flat.
The transition has been rocky.
Faced with millions stranded at the borders, Secretary of State for Migration Seema Malhotra allowing carriers to accept expiring other official documents on or after Dec. 31, 2024, as valid evidence of permission to travel until at least 31 March."
With an expected 30 million ETAs, the Home Office could experience huge queues and backlogs, according to Nicolas Rollason, an immigration partner at a London law firm and chair of the International Bar Association's immigration and nationality committee.
United States
On Jan. 10, the "Republican-controlled House and Senate are pushing ahead with the Laken Riley Act, designed to cede some federal immigration enforcement power to the states and usher in a harsher new era of immigration detention."
The bill — supported by 216 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the House of Representatives — "is named for Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student who was murdered last year in Athens, Georgia, by Jose Ibarra, a Venezuelan immigrant who was in the country unlawfully.
The Jan. 10 Time magazine report describes unusual support of the legislation from Democratic senators, Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman and Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, both Democrats.
The Laken Riley Act will also allow:
– Customs and border protection officers arrest visa holders charged with or admit to committing acts that constitute theft or shoplifting. The holder of a valid visa in the US could be removed before they had a chance to defend themselves from such charges in front of a judge.
– State attorneys general to "sue the federal government over its handling of undocumented people in its custody; demand a court instruct immigration agents to track down and arrest people it had released from immigration detention as well as sue the State Department to require no US visas be issued for any country refusing to accept the deportation of their nationals.
The messages from the crystal ball constantly shift, moving the knowns to the unreadable.
Apparently, the only thing the Five DestiNations can agree on is that the crystal ball is round — and changes will continue to roll.