The following is an update to the fourth quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the fourth quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual fourth quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on January 30, 2025. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.
Integrated Gas
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 941 | 880 - 920 | Scheduled maintenance at Pearl GTL in Qatar in Q4'24. |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.5 | 6.8 - 7.2 | Lower feedgas, and fewer cargos due to the timing of liftings. |
| Underlying opex | 1.1 | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.9 | 0.5 - 0.8 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be significantly lower than Q3'24, driven by the (non-cash) impact of expiring hedging contracts. Q4'24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.3 billion. | |||
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,811 | 1,790 - 1.890 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 | 2.2 - 2.8 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 2.7 | 2.4 - 3.1 | |
| Taxation charge | 2.4 | 2.3 - 3.1 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q4'24 is expected to be ~$0.3 billion. Q4'24 exploration well write-offs are expected to be ~$0.4 billion. | |||
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,945 | 2,600 - 3,000 | |
| Underlying opex | 2.7 | 2.4 - 2.8 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.4 - 0.8 | |
| Taxation charge | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.4 | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Marketing results are expected to be lower than Q3'24, reflecting seasonality. | |||
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
| Indicative refining margin | $5.5/bbl | $5.5/bbl | |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $164/tonne | $138/tonne | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to reflect a loss in Q4'24. |
| Refinery utilisation | 81% | 74% - 78% | |
| Chemicals utilisation | 76% | 73% - 77% | |
| Underlying opex | 2.1 | 2.0 - 2.4 | |
| Adjusted Earnings: | |||
| Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 | 0.8 - 1.0 | |
| Taxation charge / (credit) | (0.1) | (0.6) - (0.1) | |
| Other Considerations: | |||
| Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q3'24, reflecting seasonality. | |||
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.2) | (0.6) - (0.1) |
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment |
| Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) | (0.4) - (0.2) |
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Outlook | Comment | |
| CFFO: | ||||
| Tax paid | 3.0 | 2.3 - 3.1 | ||
| Derivative movements | 0.1 | (2) - 2 | ||
| Other | (0.4) | (2) - (1) | CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an ~$1.3 billion outflow related to timing of payments of emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG* and US Biofuel programmes. | |
| Working capital | 2.7 | (1) - 3 | Q4'24 Working Capital movements is expected to include a ~$1.0 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes. | |
| Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||||
| The taxation charge across segments includes the annual reassessment of deferred tax assets and one-off tax hurts. | ||||
| Non-cash post tax impairments / (impairment reversals)
(These items are reported as identified items) | 1.5 - 3.0 | Renewables & Energy Solutions Marketing Upstream Integrated gas Chemicals & Products | 0.8 - 1.2 0.4 - 0.6 0.1 - 0.5 0.1 - 0.5 0.1 - 0.2
| |
| Net debt is expected to include $4 - 6 billion of new lease liabilities recognised in Q4'24, including the recognition of the LNG Canada pipeline liability. | ||||
Guidance
The 'Quarterly Databook' contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on January 22, 2024.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
| Chemicals & Products | Q3'24 | Q4'24 Updated Outlook |
| Indicative refining margin | $5.5/bbl | $5.5/bbl |
| Indicative chemicals margin | $164/tonne | $138/tonne |
| Q3'24 Adjusted | Q4'24 QPR Outlook | Q4'24 Updated Outlook | |
| Integrated Gas | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 941 | 900 - 960 | 880 - 920 |
| LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.5 | 6.9 - 7.5 | 6.8 - 7.2 |
| Upstream | |||
| Production (kboe/d) | 1,811 | 1,750 - 1,950 | 1,790 - 1.890 |
| Marketing | |||
| Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,945 | 2,550 - 3,050 | 2,600 - 3,000 |
| Chemicals & Products | |||
| Refinery utilisation | 81% | 75% - 83% | 74% - 78% |
| Chemicals utilisation | 76% | 72% - 80% | 73% - 77% |
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 3rd Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q3'24 Adjusted | Q4'24 Updated Outlook |
| Production and manufacturing expenses | 6.1 | ||
| Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.1 | ||
| Research and development | 0.3 | ||
| Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.6 | 9.6 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.7 | ||
| Underlying Opex | 8.9 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| Upstream | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 - 2.8 |
| Marketing | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 - 2.8 |
| Chemicals and Products | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 - 2.4 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q3'24 Adjusted | Q4'24 Updated Outlook |
| Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| Less: Identified Items | 0.3 | ||
| Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.6 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| Upstream | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 - 3.1 |
| Marketing | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 - 0.8 |
| Chemicals and Products | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 - 1.0 |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Tax Charge
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q3'24 Adjusted | Q4'24 Updated Outlook |
| Taxation Charge | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
| Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.7) | ||
| Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 3.6 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Integrated Gas | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 - 0.8 |
| Upstream | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 - 3.1 |
| Marketing | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 - 0.4 |
| Chemicals and Products | (0.1) | (0.1) | (0.6) - (0.1) |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (0.1) | - |
The "Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell's financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell's financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 3rd Quarter 2024 unaudited results (Link).
| $ billions | Q3'24 | Q3'24 Adjusted | Q4'24 Updated Outlook |
| Income/(loss) attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 4.3 | 4.3 | |
| Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to Shell plc shareholders | 0.5 | ||
| Less: Identified items attributable to Shell plc shareholders | (1.3) | ||
| Adjusted Earnings | 6.0 | ||
| of which: | |||
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | (0.5) | (0.2) | (0.6) - (0.1) |
| Corporate | (0.6) | (0.6) | (0.4) - (0.2) |
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Cautionary Note
The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this announcement "Shell”, "Shell Group” and "Group” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we”, "us” and "our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ''Subsidiaries'', "Shell subsidiaries” and "Shell companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The terms "joint venture”, "joint operations”, "joint arrangements”, and "associates” may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownership interest with one or more parties. The term "Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
The numbers presented in this announcement may not sum precisely to the totals provided and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures due to rounding.
Forward-Looking Statements
This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations an