First of three partsIF you want to stay in a good mood at this year's beginning, don't read this. It's too depressing.Here we are with a year, I predicted to be full of uncertainties and (unpleasant) surprises behind us in a column I wrote in early January entitled 'An uncertain world.' It's now early January of the following year, and we know now what the world has brought us. It's not as bad as my worst case, but it did turn out much as I feared; 2024 was not a year to remember — except in the wrong way.Trump didn't only not lose the election, he won it in an incontestable way. He also won the Senate with a firm 52 out of 100 senator majority. In Congress, he won with a slim five-seat majority. Harris did what every losing presidentiable candidate, except Trump, has done, conceded gracefully.I said in January that some of the catastrophes were inevitable, and inevitable they have proved to be.The inevitable four outcomes expected in the year did occur:1. The world did get hotter in 2024. Exceeding the Paris agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius increase over the preindustrial level. So, droughts, floods, typhoons and cyclones are going to worsen. And this goes beyond 2024, into forever. The over 200 who died in Spain's worst flooding in a century are testament to that. As are the 150 who lost their lives when Kristine barreled through here. The US, Pakistan, too, and so many other places saw some of the worst calamities witnessed in history. Climate change was demonstrating its fury. Too little will be done to ameliorate this. And with a climate denier Trump in charge of the world's second-worst polluter, further worrying is inevitable. The failure of COP29 has proved my long-held belief that the rich world won't provide the money necessary to ameliorate the disaster ahead. And nothing will be at COP30 either. Maybe at COP80, reality will sink in. It's become, as the Economist said, 'a circus of political tirades, boycotts and fossil fuel celebrations. It has worked to sow the chaos.'2. More countries experienced notable democratic declines based on the findings of Freedom House's 'Nations in Transit 2024' report: Serbia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan we've found listed. This seems an inevitability now as democracy loses its appeal.3. Ruthless autocracies have, for the most part, endured. However, there have been a few notable upheavals. In Sri Lanka, widespread protests erupted in response to an economic collapse, with citizens demanding accountability from Gotabaya Rajapaksa's government. He fled the country and resigned, leading to a political transition amid the ongoing economic crisis. Similarly, in Sudan, mass protests led to the military ousting of Omar al-Bashir after his 30-year rule. And Syrian 'terrorists' kicked out Bashar al-Assad. What they'll do now is uncertain though.4. The wars in Africa, however, have continued.For others, I suggested, albeit unlikely, there may be a lessening of their impact:1. Ukraine would win the war or, at least, contain Russia in a stalemate. It hasn't. In fact, Russia recently made worrying gains. With North Korea joining the war and with Donald Trump leading the US, Ukraine is in real trouble.2. Hamas not only remains but continues to be a threat. It certainly hasn't been wiped out entirely as Netanyahu promised.3. China thankfully didn't invade Taiwan but the probability it will, remains. It certainly hasn't agreed to retain the status quo in the South China Sea. If anything, it's worsened.4. African nations have settled down to a relatively stable environment. Not worsening from where they are today, but not improving either.5. The levels of immigration around the world remain manageable. Although Hungary recently tightened immigration policies. Sweden's new government has taken a stricter stance on immigration, with policies aimed at curbing illegal immigration. Denmark's restrictive immigration policies have led to some of the world's harshest refugee regulations. While Canada is scaling back its previously liberal immigration policies. Chile has ramped up deportations, militarized borders and limited immigration from Venezuela and Haiti. Australia has introduced tougher immigration requirements. The UK, facing record-high net migration, has tightened immigration laws since Brexit. And then there's America, with Trump not only expected to greatly restrict immigration, but to deport ever so many that are already there, creating unheard-of economic chaos if he succeeds.6. Thankfully, democratic nations have remained democratic.My greatest wrong is Ukraine, and the larger threat to world stability. Where Trump will stand on the Ukrainian war, is a very worrying uncertainty this coming year. Certainly, his pronouncements during the campaign, 'I will finish this war in one day,' and his party's opposition in Congress to continued financial support are extremely disturbing. It's good Biden finally, far too late, agreed to the use of US long-range weapons. And rushed what armaments he could to Ukraine. Russia has made inroads into Ukraine, albeit at a rate that is slow, and at a huge cost in lost men and equipment so you'd think Putin has to be thinking about the wisdom of his action. But apparently, he does not care a damn for the death of his troops, at an astounding rate. And is now sending North Koreans to slaughter. In the single-minded focus, dictators display, he'll remain convinced of the mightiness of his action. The raid by Ukrainian soldiers into Russia in September gave a sliver of hope. But that is fading daily as 60,000 Russian and North Korean soldiers fight to get their territory back.It's most unsettling that Kim Jong Un is sending his troops to slaughter in Ukraine and force Ukrainian soldiers out of Russia. With Russia now beginning to make gains in the Donbas region, adding 10,000 troops and almost certainly more to come to replace the 1,200 Russians dying or wounded daily, it seriously threatens Ukraine's ability to survive. Weakening the negotiating strength Zelenskyy gained from that — if peace negotiations ever start. The introduction of North Korea adds a new dimension to the global impact of this war. It escalates it into the Asian region and raises the risks to America. You can be sure Putin is enhancing Kim's military modernization and strengths in return for the troops. The threat to South Korea and Japan rises to alarming levels. And the possibility of China moving in to support its good friend, Russia, has risen to a worrying level. Xi telling Putin, 'at present, the world is going through changes unseen in a hundred years, the international situation is intertwined with chaos, but I firmly believe that the friendship between China and Russia will continue for generations, and great countries' responsibility to their people will not change,' escalates the potential for instability throughout Asia. We should be planning for that possibility.If Iran follows suit, a not unlikely event as it already provides drones and weaponry, the situation becomes very grave. Although its loss of influence in Syria could weaken its ability to interfere. If China ups its support, Ukraine could be finished. Fortunately, China is constrained from doing this due to its need to maintain careful relationships with the West to keep its industries going. But it can't be entirely discounted.To be continued on Jan. 17, 2025wallace.likeitis@gmail.com
