A potential Trump 2.0 foreign policy trajectories to PH and SCS | The Manila Times

THE South China Sea (SCS) continues to rank among the world's most contentious geopolitical hot spots, with overlapping territorial claims and deep-rooted strategic rivalries dictating the region's fragile strategic equilibrium. For the Philippines, one of the claimant states, developments in the SCS are not merely regional in scope but hold profound implications for its national policies and international alignments. This contested waterway, hosting critical shipping routes, abundant energy reserves and rich marine ecosystems, is central to global commerce and the strategic interests of regional powers.

The Philippines' proximity and claims to key features of the SCS, such as the Spratly Islands, specifically Second Thomas Shoal (locally known as Ayungin Shoal) and Scarborough Shoal, positions it at the heart of the geopolitical standoff between China and the US. Beijing asserts its sovereign territorial claims over the SCS through its "nine/10-dash line," being perceived as a direct competitor and a stumbling block to the US quest to maintain hegemony, dominance and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. This contest is further intensified by the Philippines' enduring military alliance with the US, formalized through defense/military agreements such as the Mutual Defense Treaty, a Visiting Forces Agreement, Enhance Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), and bolstered by its role as both a long-standing strategic/military outpost of the US and its proxy/pawn in the Asia-Pacific vis-à-vis China. The overlapping claims in the SCS between the Philippines and China, and the military posturing underscore the Philippines' precarious position at the intersection of regional power plays and great power competition, a dynamic that continues to test the Philippines' diplomatic, defense, security and strategic posturing.