How Syria's crisis is rewriting Europe's strategy | The Manila Times

SYRIA has just delivered an event that could have a similarly profound impact on Europe and its neighbors. The question is: How are Europeans confronting the challenge of adapting to this rapidly evolving and multi-faceted new situation in the Middle East? The initial European response can be described as one of hesitation, a sense of being "stuck." Even the UK, which exited the EU in search of a more agile role on the world stage, is approaching the situation with caution. The consequences of Syria's crisis resonate deeply across Europe, second only to the broader repercussions felt across the Middle East. Europe stands at a crossroads, and its next steps will define its role on the global stage in the years to come. The UK's ongoing hesitations can be traced back to 2013, a pivotal moment when British lawmakers made a decision that would carry far-reaching global implications. Reportedly, President Barack Obama had drawn a firm red line on the use of chemical weapons in Syria, with plans to authorize a strike in retaliation against Bashar al-Assad's regime. The expectation was that Britain would back the US, following the precedent set in Libya just a few years prior. Instead, British MPs voted to stay out of the conflict, throwing Washington's calculations into disarray. Obama, facing resistance in Congress, eventually stepped back from direct military involvement. This moment marked a turning point in US foreign policy, especially after Obama's earlier reliance on the UK and France in Libya—where he eulogized their leading role while he opted for a more passive stance.

As early as the mid-November, it had become evident that Bashar al-Assad's government was becoming increasingly vulnerable to a rebel offensive. With the US stepping back, a vacuum emerged, quickly filled by Iran-backed militias aiming to shift the battlefield dynamics. Alongside this, Russia's strategic interests in Syria required a firmer foothold. The 2013 decision continues to cast a long shadow over Britain's response to the potential collapse of the Assad regime. The lingering sense that it may not be Britain's place to intervene now haunts Foreign Office officials, complicating the country's position in a rapidly evolving crisis. The echoes of that fateful vote remain a defining factor in how Britain tackles the precarious future of Syria. Adding a new layer to the dynamic, the return of Jonathan Powell as the national security adviser to Prime Minister Keir Starmer signals a shift in Britain's approach to the Middle East. Powell, who made headlines a decade ago, will now oversee the UK's response to the shifting power balance in Syria, particularly concerning Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).