A SWARM of as many as 75 Chinese ships has been monitored off Pag-asa Island in the West Philippine Sea, an indication that China might resume its harassment of Philippine ships after several incident-free weeks.Beijing may be stirring the pot again following the disclosure by the US defense secretary of the existence of Task Force Ayungin, a US special operations unit involved in the resupplying of a Philippine military outpost stationed on the island.Throughout its protracted maritime row with the Philippines, China has resorted to swarming as a strategy to support its spurious claim to the entire South China Sea. This time, however, it has assembled an 'extraordinary large' flotilla of vessels near Pag-asa.One can only guess what Beijing is up to now. Ray Powell, the director of Sealight, a private maritime transparency project that has been tracking developments in the South China Sea, however, sees the latest swarm as the start of a new phase in the sea row between Manila and Beijing.Recent events offer clues to China's decision to deploy a bigger fleet of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, accompanied by scores of fishing boats.The involvement of American troops in delivering provisions to the small contingent of Philippine soldiers in Pag-asa could be a trigger.The exact role of the hitherto covert Task Force Ayungin has not been fully revealed, but it appears that it has been operating for a while out of the Western Command (Wescom) headquarters in Palawan, one of the nine Philippine military bases where the US military has been given wide access under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).The Wescom base is the EDCA site that is closest to the flash points in the West Philippine Sea, and China is not comfortable having a third party getting too close to where the action is.Another likely source of friction is the completion of the repair and concreting of the 1.5-kilometer runway on Pag-asa next year. The runway will be able to accommodate bigger transport planes that could deliver the equipment to reinforce the defense facilities of the island, the country's most remote bastion of sovereignty.The runway also fits in nicely with plans to make Pag-asa a tourism and fishing destination, once tensions subside.Perhaps the biggest reason China is bent on strengthening its presence in the contested waters is the signing earlier this month by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of two landmark laws to define the country's maritime rights and set designated sea lanes to 'reinforce sovereignty.'The Maritime Zones Act aligns the country's domestic laws with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, which rejected China's claim over the waters within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.It also officially puts the 'West Philippine Sea' on the map.The law 'is essential in establishing the extent of our maritime jurisdiction and to ensure that our rights and duties as an archipelagic state are well-defined,' the President declared.The Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act establishes three sea lanes foreign vessels can legally sail through.China staunchly opposes the new laws and vows to 'continue to take all necessary measures in accordance with the law to resolutely defend the country's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.'To stress its opposition, it reiterated that it only recognizes a baseline of 'territorial waters' around Bajo de Masinloc or Scarborough Shoal, a major point of contention between Manila and Beijing over sovereignty and fishing rights.China's coast guard also tried to flip the issue, accusing the Philippines of sending military, and police vessels and aircraft to 'intrude' into the waters and airspace near Bajo de Masinloc.With the year coming to a close, China appears to be girding for a more serious confrontation with the Philippines in 2025. It had resorted to swarming before to impose its will in the West Philippine Sea. It will not be surprising if it uses the same strategy but on a much bigger scale next year.The Philippines must be ready to counter this new threat.
