59% of Americans are not confident there will be a peaceful transition of power if Trump were to lose the election
The Center for Public Opinion Research at Stetson University
The survey, conducted nationally by SSRS from Nov. 1 - 4, 2024, included a sample of 1,006 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.
The survey found that if former President Donald Trump were to lose, only 41% of respondents felt confident in a peaceful transition of power, while a substantial 59% were not confident. Among Democrats, 76% were not confident in a peaceful transition in this scenario, reflecting a clear partisan divide.
In contrast, confidence levels shift if Vice President Kamala Harris were to lose: 64% of Americans expressed confidence in a peaceful transition, with only 36% not confident. Confidence in a peaceful transition following a potential loss by Harris was significantly higher among college-educated respondents (71%).
These findings reveal widespread concerns about stability and potential unrest in certain electoral scenarios, says Steven Smallpage, PhD, Stetson Associate Professor of Political Science and CPOR Director.
"While there is always some added anxiety and uneasiness during presidential elections, this cycle feels different and more uncertain for many Americans,” he said. "Many clearly have in mind the unrest from the outcome of the 2020 election that culminated on January 6, 2021.”
The data further reveals stark contrasts along party lines. If Harris were to lose, 77% of Democrats and 58% of Republicans and Independents expressed confidence in a peaceful transition.
However, if Trump were to lose, only 23% of Democrats and 40% of Independents felt confident in a peaceful transition, while 61% of Republicans shared that confidence. In particular, 48% of Democrats reported being "not confident at all” in a peaceful transition if Trump were to lose.
Methodology
This study was conducted by SSRS on its Opinion Panel Omnibus platform, a twice-monthly, probability-based survey of the U.S. population. Data collection took place from November 1 - November 4, 2024, with a sample of 1,006 respondents (976 via web and 30 via telephone). The margin of error for total respondents is +/-3.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error can vary for each question, depending on the response distribution and sample size for that specific question. For further details, including question wording and full crosstabs, visit CPOR's website: www.stetson.edu/cpor.
About the Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR)
The Center for Public Opinion Research at Stetson University specializes in nonpartisan public opinion polling and survey research. CPOR provides valuable insights into political, social, and economic issues affecting Florida and the United States. For more information, visit stetson.edu/cpor.
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CONTACT: Cory Lancaster
Stetson University
386-216-9296
