Diversionary theory of war | The Manila Times

THE diversionary theory of war claims that unpopular leaders would use military force against a would-be foe to both divert the public's attention away from domestic problems and boost their political standing by rallying around the flag. The theory also argues that autocratic leaders create artificial tensions internally as a way to suppress dissent or opposition to their rule. It is a high-stake political gambit when leaders employ diversionary tactics to stay in power. Failure to convince people will likely backfire and result in their overthrow. This is what happened to the Sri Lankan ruling dynasty — the Rajapaksa Family — which brutally subdued the Tamil Tigers but eventually were ousted from office due to corruption and economic recession.

Diversionary theory plays a large role in many geopolitical crises. Russian President Vladimir Putin carried out his special military operations within the Donbas region against Ukraine. The invasion received high approval among the Russian people, who largely considered taking back Ukraine as a matter of national pride. With the real estate bubble unraveling in many Chinese local governments, China's undisputed leader Xi Jinping ramped up tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, further destabilizing the region. Rising dissatisfaction with the Chinese Communist Party's mismanagement of the economy, as well as endemic corruption in high places, pushed Xi to refocus on America and her allies as the real enemy. With growing street protests against the Islamic republic due to human rights abuses, the Iranian government intensified support for Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraq and Houthi militant fighters to terrorize and attack Israel. The way leaders distract their people from internal problems is through diversionary war against rivals within or outside their territory. Sometimes it works, while in most cases it spirals out into chaos and anarchy.