CAMBRIDGE, United Kingdom — Here is an easy prediction: the budget that United Kingdom Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is set to present on October 30 would please almost no one. Yet the government's first major fiscal initiative should not be judged on these terms, nor should those crafting the policy be assessed according to their ability to meet all the demands that have been placed on them. If they did that, the most likely results would be disappointing growth and financial instability.

Instead, this budget should be judged using four criteria: the extent of its longer-term growth orientation; its approach to easing structural rigidities; the extent to which it simplifies an over-engineered fiscal framework; and whether these components are all properly communicated to the public. High scores across these four categories will bode well for both longer-term growth and genuine financial stability.