THE Makabayan bloc, widely recognized both for its vocal advocacy for marginalized sectors and as the principal legal electoral front of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), has made its boldest move yet: fielding 11 Senate candidates for the 2025 midterm elections. Given the party's track record and the challenges it has faced in previous Senate races, the move raised as many questions as it did eyebrows.
Here's a bit of context: since the CPP's successful entry into mainstream politics in 2001, the majority of its party-list votes came from command votes in its "mass bases" in rural strongholds. Over the years, however, their mass bases' ability to deliver votes for the party's electoral machinery has steadily declined, as evidenced by the diminishing number of seats they occupy in the House of Representatives.
Following the implementation of Executive Order (EO) 70 in 2018, which launched a comprehensive whole-of-nation counterinsurgency strategy, the CPP's party-lists have experienced a massive decline in voter share. In both the 2019 and 2022 elections, their voter share came not from command votes but from sweep votes, riding on the popularity of certain party-lists rather than mass base loyalty.
That context is crucial in explaining the fact that the CPP has never won a Senate seat since it started fielding candidates in 2010. The closest it was able to get was in 2016, when Neri Colmenares, its sole candidate, garnered about 6 million votes and placed 20th in the tally. Despite the fact that 2016 was a strategic year, and they fielded only Colmenares as a candidate, where they typically field two to three aspirants to avoid splitting votes, they still failed to win a Senate seat, even if Rodrigo Duterte was their ally at that time.
So why, despite their shrinking voter base and history of underwhelming results, did the CPP-New People's Army (NPA)-National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) via the Makabayan bloc, decide to field 11 Senate bets for next year's midterm elections?
An error in judgment or a calculated move?
While on the surface, this strategy might seem like an audacious push for Senate seats, the party, with about five electoral flops as evidence, harbors no illusions about winning a slot. It's more likely that the party's true objective is to boost its chances of getting party-list seats in the House. Fielding numerous candidates gives the Makabayan bloc more visibility, which could lead to higher voter recognition for their affiliated party-lists. And winning a Senate seat by some miracle will be a bonus! But the real goal appears to be toward revitalizing their hold in Congress, particularly in the House, after significant losses since 2019.
With the CPP's reduced mass base control, where will it get the votes? The likely answer lies in forming alliances (even unholy ones) with local politicians and national candidates (even rival ones), potentially striking deals that could bolster voter share — again, not for a Senate win, but for more House seats. This pivot towards resorting to associations follows from its greatly diminished capacity to mobilize its traditional base, forcing it to rely on external allies.
The election period has historically been a time when the party, through its legal, political fronts, collects significant material and financial resources. In its 2023 anniversary statement, the CPP openly declared the need to "collect all possible material and financial support for NPA Red fighters." With their financial base diminished due to the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) military offensives and the loss of their capacity to exact "revolutionary tax," the 2025 elections provide a golden opportunity to secure funds not just for campaigns but for non-electoral and operational needs.
The CPP-NPA-NDFP is currently undergoing its third rectification campaign, a self-assessment aimed at regaining its lost ground. Their 2023 statement emphasized the need to "strengthen and further invigorate the mass movement" as part of their long-term strategy. By fielding multiple Senate candidates, the party is sure to use the elections as a legal platform to reenter old strongholds, attempt to reestablish dormant networks, and endeavor to expand its influence in new areas under the guise of legitimate election campaigning. This reflects a broader strategy of a desperate attempt to rebuild their grassroots support, especially in areas where their command votes have faltered.
Calculated projection of strength
In light of these factors, the decision to field 11 candidates is a mere strategic smokescreen meant to create the illusion of vitality even if the bloc manages to keep its nose barely above water, so to speak, in a political landscape that has increasingly become hostile to its lost cause.
In the EO 70 era, when it was realized that counterinsurgency is not the sole responsibility of either the AFP or the Philippine National Police, and the campaign has been transformed into a whole-of-nation approach, this election gambit should not be dismissed or taken lightly. It should be recognized as a desperate attempt to adapt, survive and maybe even thrive in a rapidly changing political milieu.
The CPP is not fighting the battle to win a Senate seat; it is fighting to gain back a foothold in the people's war. But as we read through these tactical choices, it's not the eggs they expect to hatch that matter; it's the sheer number of baskets they're putting them in that count.
Our countrymen must be able to recognize this CPP-NPA-NDFP's political maneuver. We should be more circumspect in exercising our sacred rights of suffrage. Never again should we be duped into electing to public office those who portray themselves to be representatives of marginalized groups but refuse to condemn members of the NPA that caused innumerable deaths and untold sufferings to our folks in the countryside. We should not commit another mistake of voting for those who lend support to advocates of change by violent overthrow of our democratic government.
The government needs to be proactive in exposing this political stunt of the CPP-NPA-NDFP. It should sustain its gains in eradicating this three-headed nemesis and consign it to the dustbin of irrelevance.
X: @atty_edarevalo