I AM excited to share with readers an article by Prof. Warwick Powell, a dear friend and esteemed colleague, where he offers his perspective on Japan's newly elected prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, and his foreign policy approach. Warwick is an adjunct professor at Queensland University of Technology and a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute in Beijing.
Warwick's article "Ghosts of Memories Past" is a compelling piece that offers a profound examination of the implications of Ishiba's leadership on regional and global affairs. Having sought Professor Powell's permission to feature his work, I am delighted to share this insightful analysis with readers.
'Ghosts of Memories Past' by Prof. Warwick Powell
"Japan's new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, can potentially shake up the Asian regional security landscape as he pushes for his version of an Asian NATO. In doing so, he is likely to ruffle feathers in Washington, Beijing, and across the Asia region for different reasons. His ambitions may also increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula rather than go toward their alleviation, or at the very least, effective ongoing management of the status quo.
"The infelicitous effect of his energetic nationalism would be to contribute to rising regional instability and tensions rather than toward a more stable region as if the region needed more agitation. That said, perhaps Ishiba's Asia NATO gambit is a negotiation ploy aimed at pushing the envelope further open to enable Japan to expand its regional military footprint and continue its incremental retreat from its post-war constraints.
"There's little doubt that Japan has been taking advantage of the Asia region's changing security and military capabilities to energize its remilitarization. The United States' regional primacy and military preponderance is, at best, something that is in serious doubt. Perhaps it is, in fact, a thing of the past. Either way, the US is confronting a reality in which its global spread has resulted in resource limitations impacting its Asian presence. It has had little choice but to actively enlist others in Asia to address this resourcing gap. Client states, former colonies and sub-imperial allies have all been inveigled via a series of overlapping mini-lateral arrangements to support US efforts to respond to what the US sees as its principal threat to Asian primacy: the rise of China.
"Japan is a member of the QUAD, which was actually the brainchild of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The QUAD involves the United States, India, Australia, and Japan. Additionally, Japan recently joined a three-party mini-lateral involving the United States and the Philippines. Japan is also considering becoming a member of the Aukus arrangement, made up of the United States, the UK, and Australia.
"These mini-laterals reflect a US approach driven by a tacit recognition of its growing limitations. The assorted mini-lateral partners have been enlisted to plug gaps in American military capability and supply chain constraints. While US security doctrine persists with the notion that its interests span the entire globe, material realities and involvement in multiple conflicts globally are exacerbating the gulf between ambition and delivery capability. The US has spent over $16 trillion since 2001 on defense procurement, yet it's no longer in a position to fight what is described as a two-war strategy, let alone prevail in a three-war world. The recent experiences in Ukraine and the unfolding conflict in West Asia all point to the chronic limitations of American military capability.
"American military doctrine has been tested and bested on the battlefields of Ukraine. The Ukraine army has been trained and equipped to NATO (American) standards for almost the past decade and has been progressively ground down. The Ukraine experience also exposes the realities of the American military-industrial system. What has been called the military-industrial complex perhaps should be renamed the military-financial complex. The Western military-industrial system, including that of the US, does not have the capacity to match the productive output of Russia, let alone any other peer. As for personnel, the West is struggling to recruit sufficient numbers to replace attrition. Last but not least, Western military supply chains do not have the capacity to replenish, repair and replace what has been committed to them and is lost on the front lines. Shortage of skilled personnel compounds production and maintenance backlogs.
"The American blue water navy is more vulnerable today than it's ever been. The development of hypersonic missile technologies by Russia, China and Iran have changed the balance of power in military technologies, as demonstrated by Andrei Martyanov in his 'The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs.' The single-island chain is no longer impervious.
"In this context, in the past decade, Japan has sought to exploit gaps in which it could incrementally expand its military prowess and pursue a strategy to deliver greater autonomy within the region. Japan is treading carefully as it seeks to balance this objective without alienating its American protector. After all, the Americans have a significant military presence across Japan, limiting Japanese foreign and defense policy autonomy. That said, the weaker America appears to some in the Japanese political establishment, the more assertive the latter has become. Ishiba comes from this line of Japanese thinking, drawing succor from the wellspring of vibrant and increasingly vocal Japanese nationalism that aims to reclaim a more potent role for Japan within the security architecture of Asia.
"Ishiba's Asia NATO proposition tests the tolerances of the US even further. He has long seen the Japan-US relationship as asymmetric, pushing for what he sees as greater parity and enhancing Japanese independence. Washington, unsurprisingly, is unwilling to concede Ishiba's proposition that the Japan-US alliance should be one between two 'ordinary nations.' It's likely Ishiba's Asia NATO gambit is going nowhere.
"Be that as it may, raising the notion has the potential to focus regional concerns about Japanese aspirations in Asia. The ghosts of Japanese war atrocities have not been fully laid to rest, and Ishiba's utterances and maneuvers run the risk of raising alarm bells across the region.
"Will the deaths of 4,000 Filipinos at Fort Santiago in 1945 due to hunger and torture be forgotten? Or the memory of over 300 civilians gunned down on Taft Avenue and Padre Faura Street by the Japanese military? What about the priests and civilians killed at Fort McKinley or the tragedy in Intramuros, where refugees were surrounded, homes set ablaze and escapees shot down? The Manila Massacre claimed at least 100,000 lives, nearly 15 percent of the city's population. Does Ishiba believe these memories have been erased from history?
"Other countries will have their own memories of Japanese war atrocities. For some, these events are dismissed as bygones, while others evoke past horrors and present risks. Ishiba's proposal for an 'Asia NATO' may have been ignored in Asia and Washington, but Japan's broader military ambitions are likely to stir old anxieties across the region. Ishiba's rise occurs amid regional upheaval. His efforts to reestablish Japan as a regional power challenged Washington's expectations and unsettled a region eager to avoid great power rivalries. Asia and Washington view Ishiba's Japan with caution, albeit for different reasons."
Anna Rosario Malindog-Uy is a PhD economics candidate at the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development at Peking University.