TODAY is the last day of the filing for certificates of candidacy for the 2025 midterm elections. Two major elements are at play for the administration: Can it win a majority in the congressional races as well as gain control over the key provincial and highly urbanized city races? On the flip side, who will be the opposition because the midterm is a referendum on the Marcos administration and the opposition will have a single task — clearly contrast itself with the Marcos-Romualdez clique.
A cursory analysis of the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas shows five (Cayetano, Lapid, Tolentino, Revilla and Marcos) of the seven reelectionists with the Alyansa, three balik-Senado (Lacson, Pacquiao and Sotto), one Cabinet secretary (Abalos), one from the local government (Binay), and two from the House of Representatives (Tulfo and Villar).
If you break it down by geographical areas, the Alyansa covers Cavite, NCR, Ilocos-Leyte, Pampanga, GenSan-Saranggani and Cebu. Specifically, three come from Cavite (Lacson, Tolentino and Revilla), six from the National Capital Region (Sotto, Abalos, Binay, Cayetano, Tulfo and Villar), Ilocos-Leyte (Marcos), Pampanga (Lapid), GenSan and Saranggani (Pacquiao). Sotto also has Cebu as his bailiwick.
The Alyansa, by design, assured there will be no sweep by the opposition. Though Marcos is incumbent, this will be a test of coattails. Dutertes have proven they have coattails. Marcos, on the other hand, will be tested in 2025. But as it is, the way the Marcos administration assembled their slate, there is no need for a Marcos coattail since there are six candidates in the slate that are extremely competitive. They can win on their own. But that also depends on how they will run the 90-day campaign. And how the voters will accept them considering three are not close to Marcos. Pacquiao and Lacson fought it out with Marcos in the 2022 presidential campaign, while Binay has never been associated with the Marcoses. The next six places are a toss-up, and there lies the chance of PDP-Laban.
The opposition is a break between PDP-Laban and the Pangilinan-led triumvirate of Bam Aquino, Chel Diokno and Pangilinan. As of this writing, Pangilinan, Aquino and Diokno have not filed their certificates yet. PDP-Laban has also signed a memorandum of agreement (MoA) with Partido Reporma, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, Pederalismo ng Dugong Dakilang Samahan (PDDS), and Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte National Executive Coordinating Committee (MRRD NECC) for 2025. From the lay of the land, PDP-Laban looks like the opposition to Marcos' Alyansa instead of the Pangilinan-led triumvirate for the Senate.
Though money and machinery are with the Alyansa, PDP-Laban has the experience to put together a winning combination as seen in 2016 (PRRD), 2019 (Go ending in No. 3) and 2022 (VP Sara and Sen. Robinhood Padilla). Go and Padilla were tracers of the Duterte brand. The fight for the hearts and minds of voters will be at play. The chance of a Duterte-Duterte campaigning together is one of the most awaited strategic moves in 2025. Will the father and daughter combine against machinery and money?
The latest news that former president Duterte will run for Davao City mayor and Baste Duterte will run for vice mayor placed a damper on the voters' cry for the elder Duterte to lead the Senate slate of PDP-Laban. It would have been an easy choice, but Davao City is the bailiwick of the Dutertes, and the strongest will have to defend its plank against a loaded opponent pushed by the administration to take over Davao City. Davao City is a critical base for 2028.
Winning an election as an opposition coalition involves several strategic approaches that can enhance the chances of success. Strategies such as forming a united front (coordinated campaigning, clear messaging), strategic voting, addressing voter concerns (focus on key issues, engagement with the electorate), building a strong ground game (grassroots mobilization, utilizing data and analytics), demonstrating governance capability (showcasing competence and policy proposals) can enhance the chances of an opposition coalition.
Preparing for 2028 would need an 18-month lead time. But engaging in 2025 allows one to test measured capacities, stringing local support in key battleground provinces and cities, energizing the base on complementary tasks that prove control of the ground game. Changing the terrain is a ground war. When a national candidate has awareness and trust, air war becomes secondary and digital war becomes an enhancing element between campaigns. Repeatedly, digital does not win campaigns. Conversion is a ground battle.
Critical for 2025 is the set of members of the Senate who will not allow Charter change as dictated by the Speaker in January 2024. Crucial is to have an independent Senate that will not fall for the groundless impeachment complaint that will be filed at the start of the 20th Congress. There is an urgent need for congressional reform on open liquidation of the expenses of Congress, both institutional and all members. The budget process needs to be changed since it has been abused and milked by the powers that be for the past three years with total disregard for development in terms of human capital and infrastructure.
The year 2025 can be a reboot for the Marcos administration if they decide to work seriously and focus on what needs to be done. On the other hand, at the rate they wasted political capital in the first three years and made elected officials associated with them rich and happy, the remaining three years might again be all politics to ensure a successor that will protect them outside of office. And this is where the Dutertes would need to move now to set up a beachhead in 2025 for 2028.
Observing from the gallery what is happening now in the filing of candidacy certificates shows a trained eye that things are moving fast on the ground. Alliances are shifting. Who makes the first move gets a reaction that may lead to certain races being unopposed. And the voters are moving to campaign against certain names that have pulped the system dry. At the end of the day, local officials know when the tide is turning even if bags of money, control of police and the military are with the administration. "Every great political campaign rewrites the rules; devising a new way to win is what gives campaigns a comparative advantage against their foes." A Duterte did that in 2016. And they needed a Duterte to win in 2022.