Don't be fooled by China's Third Plenum

NEW HAVEN, Connecticut — In the so-called Third Plenum, which began on July 15 and ends on the 18th, China's senior leadership has an opportunity to establish the broad outlines of a policy framework that could reshape the country's course for the next several years. Don't count on it. There is good reason to think that China watchers in the West have unrealistic expectations of what is to come.

Such was the case in late 2013 when the 18th Central Committee gathered for a Third Plenum of its own. That policy conclave was widely heralded as a historic opportunity for a new leader — Xi Jinping — to put China on a different path after the unfinished reforms of the Hu Jintao era. There was a palpable sense of excitement in the air, and at first blush, the plenum appeared to deliver. A final communiqué listed more than 300 reform proposals covering a broad range of areas — from state-owned enterprises, land policy and foreign trade to investment reforms and environmental and social welfare policies.