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"The growth in total semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales already underway this year is forecast to be followed by a robust expansion of roughly 17% in 2025," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. "The global semiconductor industry is demonstrating its strong fundamentals and growth potential supporting the diverse range of disruptive applications emerging from the Artificial Intelligence wave."
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Segment
After registering a record $96 billion in sales last year, the wafer fab equipment segment, which includes wafer processing, fab facilities and mask/reticle equipment, is projected to increase 2.8% to $98 billion in 2024. This marks a notable increase from the previously forecasted $93 billion in SEMI's 2023 Year-End Equipment Forecast. Ongoing strong equipment spending in China and substantial investments in DRAM and HBM, driven by AI computing, drove the upward revision. Looking ahead to 2025, Wafer fab equipment segment sales are projected to expand 14.7%, reaching $113 billion due to increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications.
Following two years of contraction caused by challenging macroeconomic conditions and softening semiconductor demand, the back-end equipment segment is anticipated to start its recovery in the second half of 2024. Specifically, sales of semiconductor test equipment are projected to rise 7.4% to $6.7 billion in 2024, while assembly and packaging equipment sales are predicted to increase 10.0% to $4.4 billion in the same year. Furthermore, back-end segment growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with test equipment sales surging 30.3% and assembly and packaging sales increasing 34.9%. The segments' growth is supported by the increasing complexity of semiconductor devices for high-performance computing and the expected recovery in demand for automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics end-markets. Additionally, back-end growth is expected to increase over time to process ramping supply from new front-end fabs.
* Total equipment includes new wafer fab, test, and assembly and packaging. Total equipment excludes wafer manufacturing equipment. Totals may not add due to rounding.
The sales of Wafer Fab equipment for foundry and logic applications are expected to show a moderate contraction of 2.9% year-over-year to $57.2 billion in 2024 as a result of softening in demand for mature nodes and higher than expected sales for advanced nodes in the previous year. The segment is forecast to grow 10.3% in 2025 to $63.0 billion, driven by increasing demand for leading-edge technology, the introduction of new device architectures, and increased capacity expansion purchases.
Memory-related capital expenditures are projected to see the most significant increase in 2024 and demonstrate continued growth in 2025. NAND equipment sales are expected to remain relatively stable in 2024, with a 1.5% increase to $9.35 billion, as supply and demand normalize, setting the stage for a 55.5% expansion to $14.6 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, DRAM equipment sales are projected to grow strongly at 24.1% and 12.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, supported by surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration.
Source: SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS), July 2024
Mainland China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending through 2025. China is projected to maintain the top position over the forecast period as the region's equipment purchases continue to rise. Equipment shipments to China are projected to exceed a record $35 billion in 2024, solidifying its lead over other regions. While equipment spending for some regions is expected to fall in 2024 before rebounding in 2025, China is expected to see a contraction in 2025 following significant investments over the past three years.
The SEMI forecast is based on collective input from top equipment suppliers, the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) data collection program and the industry-recognized SEMI World Fab Forecast database.
About SEMI Market Data
The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports:
- Monthly SEMI North American Billings Report, an early perspective of equipment market trends
- Monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment billings for seven regions and more than 22 market segments
- Bi-annual Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast - OEM Perspective, an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market
About SEMI
SEMI® is the global industry association connecting over 3,000 member companies and 1.5 million professionals worldwide across the semiconductor and electronics design and manufacturing supply chain. We accelerate member collaboration on solutions to top industry challenges through Advocacy, Workforce Development, Sustainability, Supply Chain Management and other programs. Our SEMICON® expositions and events, technology communities, standards and market intelligence help advance our members' business growth and innovations in design, devices, equipment, materials, services and software, enabling smarter, faster, more secure electronics. Visit www.semi.org, contact a regional office, and connect with SEMI on LinkedIn and X to learn more.
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