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Analysts disagree over risk of confrontation in WPS

THE possibility that China will abandon hope of peacefully reuniting with Taiwan is still 'more dangerous' to regional and global peace than the continued escalation of tensions in the South China Sea, the head of a US-based maritime transparency project said Monday.

The view of retired US Air Force Col. Ray Powell, who heads Sealight, which monitors and reports activities in the South China Sea, contrasted with that expressed by former US diplomat Douglas Paal, who told the South China Morning Post that the risk of a confrontation over Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal was much higher and 'something more dangerous' than an invasion of Taiwan.

This photo taken on March 5, 2024 shows China Coast Guard vessels deploying water cannons at the Philippine military chartered Unaizah May 4 (R) during its supply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea. JAM STA ROSA / AFP