A PATTERN-seeking mammal is how a kumpadre describes me, albeit in a vein of humor, due to my predilection for predicting outcomes of Philippine presidential contests based on patterns in history. I found myself starting the practice by way of learning a lesson from my electoral defeat in 1998. I ran for mayor of Antipolo that year initially under the ticket of then-House Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., who was the standard-bearer of the administration party, the Lakas CMD. Pitted against de Venecia was then-Vice President Joseph Ejercito "Erap" Estrada of the LAMMP (Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino).

Too late I realized that at no time in Philippine history had a speaker of the House won as president of the land, while a vice president running for president and winning already had a precursor in Diosdado Macapagal running and winning against reelectionist incumbent Carlos Garcia in 1961. Of the other presidential aspirants in 1998, another who enjoyed a pattern for winning was Renato de Villa, who was a former defense secretary like Ramon Magsaysay was when he won as president in 1954. But in 1998, de Villa lacked one other element for winning: that of being the fifth in a lineup of presidents.

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