STATE-OF-THE-ART climate models drastically underestimate how much extreme rainfall increases under global warming, according to a study published on Monday (Tuesday in Manila) that signals a future of more frequent catastrophic floods unless humanity curbs greenhouse emissions.

It comes as countries prepare to meet at the COP28 summit in Dubai beginning later this week, amid fears it could soon be impossible to limit long-term warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius scientists say is necessary to curb the worst effects of human-caused climate change.