IF you believe the chatterbox, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno is on his way out and will be replaced anytime soon by former senator Ralph Recto. Put another way, a non-politician (technocrat) will be supplanted by a politician. Good or bad? Let's see.

Ralph Recto. He is articulate and bright. He has an excellent legislative record both in the House of Representatives and the Senate. He served as an undersecretary at the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) for one year. He has authored or co-authored several pieces of milestone legislation in the Senate that helped past administrations achieve impressive economic gains.

But Recto is more a politician than a technocrat. I am afraid Recto, like most politicians, would be tempted to pursue a populist economic agenda. I am not sure he could summon the courage to write a long-term economic prescription in the face of public discontent.

The clamor to eliminate or suspend the excise tax on fuel is one good example. Would Recto play to the crowd? Would he sacrifice long-term gains for short-term relief? Can he demonstrate political will in the face of public pressure to abolish or suspend the excise tax? Diokno, on the other hand, has come out strongly against the suspension of the excise tax on fuel, and rightly so.

Suspending the excise tax on gasoline, I would admit, may bring temporary, short-term relief to suffering consumers. But at what cost to the government? Which social services or interventions will be prejudiced? What about our credit ratings? Will they remain buoyant or tank as soon as we temporarily hold the implementation of the excise tax?

My prediction is that our credit ratings would be downgraded as a result of intervention in the fuel excise tax because of the negative effect it would have on the government's revenues. A downgraded rating will make our borrowings more expensive, and because of that, many of our social services and infrastructure programs will subsequently be harmed. In short, a temporary hold on the excise tax on fuel will engender a massive deleterious effect on our government's social amelioration and development programs, which could push our economy back decades. Vietnam has already overtaken us economically. Its GDP and FDI are much higher than ours by now. Expect Cambodia to speed past us as well if we don't get our acts together.

This is exactly the perfect time for the government to demonstrate political will. This is also the time for the government to rely more on the advice of technocrats like Diokno, who is not afraid to face political headwinds or be the object of public condemnation. For all his faults, I can trust Diokno to say what he means and mean what he says, though the heavens may fall. You can expect him to tell the shocking truth and be ready to prescribe a bitter pill for the country's economic health and be dammed for it. And that's exactly what this country needs: the unvarnished truth.

But what to me is a compelling reason why a technocrat like Diokno should continue to head the Finance department is the opinion of the international business community. Diokno has an international reputation; Ralph Recto does not. Furthermore, Diokno's reputation is that of an apolitical economic leader delivering consistent performance in the employ of several very different administrations. That is a sign of stability, and to an international investor considering whether to spend a huge sum of capital on an investment in the Philippines that may not pay off for several years, that stability of policy and management approach is absolutely critical.

Ralph Recto might turn out to be a fine Finance secretary, or he might not; that is a wild card no big-ticket investor, especially those foreign investors the country needs, would be happy to play.

We need technocrats in government, not politicians. Politicians pander to the crowd and bend to the people's will, while a technocrat is like a physician who diagnoses your ailment and prescribes a bitter pill for your well-being. A Finance secretary exercises candor. He can't afford to act like a politician who would be looking for public approval for his every action. He must be forthright with the state of our economy and prescribe a painful solution when necessary. Both the politician and the technocrat, however, are two sides of the same coin. They serve as a check on the other.

Recto, if he runs for the Senate in 2025, will have my vote. The Senate could use Recto's intellectual deft and legislative experience in cobbling together relevant legislation the country badly needs. Ralph Recto, Franklin Drilon, Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Mar Roxas, Kiko Pangilinan, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Gregorio Honasan, Isko Moreno and Leni Robredo in the Senate will help elevate its image and improve the quality of legislation that it churns out. For one, there will be fewer "jokers" and more statesmen in the upper chamber. Recto is presidential material. He has the qualities of a president.

He has political pedigree. He has excellent performance while in Congress. He hails from Region 4, the most populous region in the country. And he is married to superstar Vilma Santos, whose brilliance, despite the passing years, has not dimmed a bit. At the very least, a vice presidential run in 2028 could be within reach. But of this, I am absolutely sure: there is no presidential pathway through being Finance secretary. On the contrary, if Recto takes the job, it will doom him politically. I have yet to see a "Tax Collector" being embraced by the people and elected to the presidency.

For Diokno, an unsolicited advice: Be prudent. Be mindful of the people's reaction to your well-meaning statements. Do not give your detractors an opening to paint you black. Pick your interviews. Choose your topic carefully. And vet your interviewer prior to the interview. Control your narratives.

Remember the adage: "Sometimes, no answer is also an answer."