LAST January 25, the German government presented its new growth estimate — GDP (gross domestic product) growth of plus 0.2 percent in 2023 and 2.3 percent in 2024 — that showed hardly any signs of a recession. Meanwhile, semiofficial to more or less official assessments ranged from minus 1 percent to minus half a percent.

The most pessimistic expectations for German growth this year emerged in the middle of 2022 when gas prices were sky-high and there was a prospect of a shortage in Germany. It is a different scenario right now but should there be the prospect of gas shortages again, growth expectations will drop immediately.