H.G. Wells, the famed British author of The Time Machine and The War of Worlds, predicted in 1903 that statistical thinking would one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. I used to think this was a far-fetched idea. Why would ordinary people ever need statistical thinking? Isn't it more necessary for government officials and business people? Why should ordinary people care about averages, probabilities and margins of error?

The campaign season for the presidential elections proves how correct Wells was. Different survey outfits have bombarded the public on what proportion of potential voters prefer this or that candidate. All the reports use a lot of statistics. Unfortunately, however, media interviews about the latest Pulse Asia survey — held from March 17 to 21 — on candidate preferences showed misunderstandings about the logic of survey statistics.