IN his article of Jan. 21, 2021 in The Manila Times (“Modern-day Cassandras proven wrong on RTL”), columnist Fermin Adriano claimed that critics of the Rice Tariffication Law, or RTL, were dismally wrong in predicting a decline in planted area and production as a result of lower palay (unmilled rice) prices following the removal of restrictions on rice imports. He pointed to the latest projections from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) placing 2020 palay output at a record high of 19.44 million tons, up 3.3 percent from the previous year despite a succession of typhoons in the latter part of the year.
Indeed, the Department of Agriculture (DA) should be commended for a positive outcome in 2020 despite the challenges imposed by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and typhoons that hit the country during the year. However, a deeper analysis of the data implies that there is actually little to celebrate and that the future may not be as rosy as Mr. Adriano makes it appear.
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