In its latest Philippine Economic Update, the World Bank said the country’s economy could contract by as much as 8.1 percent this year. Although the figure was an unfortunate downward revision from its earlier projection in October, it was still better than the government’s forecast of a 8.5-percent to 9.5-percent GDP contraction. The latest forecast came on the back of expectations that the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact would worsen, lockdown measures, and the country’s first recession since 1991.
Although the overall economic outlook looked rather grim, recent research shows that there might be hope for the retail industry if the global health crisis’ effects are curbed. Colliers projected in a study that retail vacancy would rise to 12 percent in 2020 from 9.8 percent in 2019. In March, mall operators reported a 10-percent drop in sales and fashion retailers saw a 20-percent decline, according to a survey by the Philippine Retail Association. These numbers resulted from reduced consumer mobility, physical distancing protocols, and hesitancy in exchanging cash with consumers, all of which could be treated as opportunities for the retail market to adjust to the new normal.