On the economic slump, uppermost in the minds of many Filipinos is this: Do we have a well-planned, viable way forward? Because there are two dueling forecasts, the one from the official side that suggests a full-year of moderate contraction (not more than 6 percent) and one from the multilateral institutions that forecasts a grimmer picture that the Philippines would be the Asean laggard this year.
Which is which, and toward what path is the economy heading right now? Good if we can just wish away the grimmer version. Overall, though, there is this recurring dread that the official optimism would crash and burn right after the final figure on the fourth quarter performance shall have been announced. Should the fourth quarter figure more or less align with the second and third quarter performances of 16.9 percent and 11.5 percent contractions, respectively, the economy will be declared as toast. And, indeed, validate the dire forecast from the multilateral institutions on our laggard growth. From the towering perch of a star performer to the unfamiliar dwelling place in the cellar.
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