Opinion surveys almost by definition capture only people’s whims at the moment, and often do not reflect well-considered views, except perhaps when such a survey is conducted a few weeks before the actual election.

Polls, therefore, mostly tell you which candidate is the most popular at the moment. But especially in a poor country like ours, popularity doesn’t all translate to votes. Call it the electoral or command machine, a candidate’s network, his organization’s capability to buy votes, voters’ memory due to a candidate’s actual visit to a town, or as the Americans term it, the ground campaign—this X factor is not captured by polls until perhaps a few weeks before the elections.